Linee Strategiche – 01/10/2013

progetto a cura di Marco Emanuele (, 393/8697706)
seguici su twitter: @lstrategiche
segui il nostro blog di riflessione sulla complessità, Complessi si nasce, (aggiornamenti quotidiani nelle rubriche Fuori cronaca e Passaggi culturali)
segui il sito Linee strategiche, in costante aggiornamento: Alcune segnalazioni:

– Lo shutdown degli Usa in 8 punti (Enrico Beltramini, Limes online). Per la prima volta dal 1995, al governo federale è stata negata la legge di copertura della spesa pubblica. Cosa significa e quali sono le conseguenze. (…).

– America’s Endless Budget Battle (Kenneth Rogoff, Project-Syndicate).


– Convitato di pietra sulla Cina (Andrea Renda, AffarInternazionali). Il 2013 ha segnato l’avvio delle negoziazioni per l’ambizioso piano di partenariato transatlantico per il commercio e gli investimenti, Ttip. Se portato a compimento senza intoppi e ridimensionamenti, questo accordo potrebbe mutare radicalmente il panorama internazionale, stabilendo regole comuni per scambi che ammontano al 30% del commercio mondiale di beni, il 20% degli investimenti diretti esteri, nonché un volume di scambi che supera i 700 miliardi di euro all’anno. (…).

– U.S. and Iranian Realities (George Friedman, Stratfor Global Intelligence).

– Kings for All Seasons: How the Middle East’s Monarchies Survived the Arab Spring (Brookings). No Arab monarchy has fallen during the Arab uprisings, and only one – Bahrain – has had a regime-shaking crisis. These regimes have been written off for decades as anachronisms. How did they weather the region’s political storm better than their republican neighbors? In this Analysis Paper from the Brookings Doha Center, F. Gregory Gause, III lays out the strategies that the Arab monarchies have utilized to stay in power. The democratic wave that has swept the Arab world has put new pressure on the Gulf monarchies to pursue reform. Still, Gause writes these regimes’ hydrocarbon wealth and coalitions of domestic and international allies – their basic sources of strength – remain intact. Contrary to predictions of the monarchies’ imminent demise, then, Gause argues that these rulers are here to stay. He provides a detailed look at these regimes’ responses to the Arab Spring, including their political reforms – and whether it is realistic to push them any further. (…).

– Transcending Mutual Deterrence in the U.S.-Russian Relationship (Belfer Center). Even as this paper was being written and edited, U.S.-Russian relations have warmed and chilled. Today, as we are about to go to press, marks a particularly chilly period in recent history, with the cancellation of a planned Moscow Summit in September 2013. To some, this cold spell might signal an inapt moment to consider issues related to transcending mutual deterrence. Such a view would overlook the aims of the paper, which attempts to assess the central and enduring interests of the United States and Russia, the extent to which they coincide or conflict, and whether or not in light of these interests mutual deterrence should remain a fundamental feature of the relationship.  The analysis and recommendations offered below are based on a long-term view.  The inevitable and transitory changes in the U.S.-Russian relationship cannot gainsay them.  Indeed, at moments of temporary frustration or elation it is most important to think strategically about central and enduring national interests and how best to secure them. (…).

– Netanyahu to Pressure Obama on Iran Talks (Wayne Madsen, Strategic Culture Foundation). History shows that Israel is apt to create turmoil for American foreign policy when it doesn’t get its way. (…).

– Individual Terror as Pattern of Washington’s Foreign Policy (Nil Nikandrov, Strategic Culture Foundation). Physical elimination of foreign politicians fallen out of US favor has become a routine matter for Obama’s administration. (…).

– Israel’s plan to bring Cyprus and Turkey together (International Relations and Security Network). Can Israel help improve the tricky relationship between Cyprus and Turkey? The International Crisis Group’s Hugh Pope believes so. The key lies in jointly developing Israel’s natural gas deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean. (…).

– Tackling Antibiotic Resistance for Greater Global Health Security (Chatham House).

– Arms Trade Treaty: Attention Now on Ratification (Elli Kytomaki, Chatham House). On 25 September, the United States signed the UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), joining a group of over 110 countries already signed to the treaty which aims to regulate the global trade in arms. The treaty will enter into force once fifty countries have ratified it. This will most likely take at least two years and require significant assistance and capacity building efforts in many regions. (…).


– Kazakhstan: Waiting for Change (International Crisis Group). Kazakhstan has long been viewed from the outside as the most prosperous and stable country in a region widely regarded as fragile and dysfunctional. The appearance of wealth, based largely on the conspicuous consumption of Almaty and Astana, its main cities, and multi-billion-dollar energy contracts – increasingly with China – hides, however, a multitude of challenges. An ageing authoritarian leader with no designated successor, labour unrest, growing Islamism, corruption, and a state apparatus that, when confronted even with limited security challenges, seems hard-pressed to respond, all indicate that the Kazakh state is not as robust as it first appears. Without a significant effort to push forward with repeatedly promised political, social and economic reforms, Kazakhstan risks becoming just another Central Asian authoritarian regime that squandered the advantages bestowed on it by abundant natural resources. (…).


– The Dark Side of Transition: Violence Against Muslims in Myanmar (International Crisis Group). Following the outbreak of deadly intercommunal clashes in Rakhine State in 2012, anti-Muslim violence has spread to other parts of Myanmar. The depth of anti-Muslim sentiment in the country, and the inadequate response of the security forces, mean that further clashes are likely. Unless there is an effective government response and change in societal attitudes, violence could spread, impacting on Myanmar’s transition as well as its standing in the region and beyond. (…).


– The European Parliament Elections 2014 Watershed or, Again, Washed Out? (International Relations and Security Network). This paper discusses two factors that could impact Europe’s parliamentary elections in 2014. In the first case, a proposed change to the election rules — i.e., that parties must field ‘top candidates’ for the presidency of the European Commission — could negatively or positively influence voter turnout, depending on the quality of the candidates, and potentially turn future elections into glorified personality contests. In the second case, Europe’s economic woes could unleash a wave of negative campaigning against European integration and might bring out a slew of protest voters to the polls. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to minimize these two major risks to the ‘European Project’. (…).

i seminari di Fondazione Link Campus University:
– 8 ottobre 2013 ore 16 (biblioteca di Link Campus University, via Nomentana 335-Roma), presentazione del libro di Sergio Zoppi, Una battaglia per la libertà. “Il Saggiatore” di Gherardo Marone (Napoli 1924-1925) – Rubbettino.
Introduce e modera: Stefano Folli
Intervengono: Vincenzo Scotti, Mario Pendinelli, Marco Emanuele
R.S.V.P.: Chiara Scotti,, 06/40400200

le attività di Link Campus University:

– Link Campus University, in collaborazione con il Centro Studi “Gino Germani”,  promuove un corso di alta formazione su “Analisi d’intelligence: metodologie e tecniche di analisi e previsione delle minacce“, con la partecipazione di autorevoli docenti  italiani e stranieri. Il corso si svolgerà presso la Link Campus University (via Nomentana 335, Roma)   il  18,19, 20 e 25 ottobre 2013. Il  corso approfondirà i problemi e le  metodologie dell’analisi d’intelligence strategica, tattica e operativa, con particolare riferimento al monitoraggio, la previsione e l’early warning di minacce alla sicurezza. Per informazioni e richieste di partecipazione si prega di contattare

in collaborazione con Università degli Studi Link Campus University,

segui le novità editoriali di Eurilink Edizioni,
per essere cancellata/o scrivere a: