Linee Strategiche – 16/09/2013

progetto a cura di Marco Emanuele (lineestrategiche@gmail.com, 393/8697706)
seguici su twitter: @lstrategiche
segui il nostro blog di riflessione sulla complessità, Complessi si nasce, http://complessi-si-nasce.it  
segui il sito Linee strategiche, http://linee-strategiche.webnode.it. Alcune segnalazioni:
GLOBAL
–  Russia-US Agreement on Syria: Challenge Enormous, but We Can Do it Together (Andrei Akulov, Strategic Culture Foundation). A framework document agreed by the US and Russia on September 14  stipulates that Syria must provide a full inventory of its chemical weapons in one week. The production equipment is to be destroyed by November and all weapons must be removed from Syria or destroyed by mid-2014. If Syria fails to comply, the deal could be enforced by a UN resolution with the use of force as a last resort.  China, the UK, France the UN and NATO have all expressed satisfaction at the agreement. The both sides confirmed that a UN resolution could be sought under Chapter VII of the UN charter, which allows for the use of force, if Syria fails to comply. But US officials say the President reserves the right to act without the agreement of the UN. However Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said force remained a last-ditch option. According to him, “Naturally, no use of force is mentioned in these agreed approaches. Nor are any automatic sanctions mentioned. Any violations must be convincingly and unambiguously proven in the UN Security Council.” (…). http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/09/16/russia-us-agreement-on-syria-challenge-enormous-but-we-can-do-it-together.html
– Russia-US Agreement on Syrian Chemical Weapons (Georgy Voskrensky, Strategic Culture Foundation). The agreement reached in Geneva on September 12-14 between US State Secretary John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presents the framework for concerted activities to liquidate the Syrian chemical weapons arsenal. Multipronged efforts are to be applied in the coming days to bring the agreement into life. (…). http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/09/16/russia-us-agreement-on-syrian-chemical-weapons.html
– Brazil’s Foreign Policy Ambitions And Global Geopolitics (Luis Ferreira, Eurasia review). On July 17, Antonio Patriota, Brazil’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, discussed his country’s efforts to achieve stability and peace in Africa with other members of the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP). The increased relevance of the CPLP illustrates Brazil’s extending diplomatic influence. Yet, while Brazil has seen prodigious economic growth in the last decade, its foreign policy has not yet reached its full potential apex. (…). http://www.eurasiareview.com/16092013-brazils-foreign-policy-ambitions-global-geopolitics-analysis/
– Terror: Twelve Reality Bytes (Vikram Sood, Eurasia review). Let us get the facts on the table first about the global security situation in a context where discussions on WMDs are now relegated to international conferences and sporadic discussions about Iran and North Korea. The threat that is pre-eminent today is terrorism. (…). http://www.eurasiareview.com/16092013-terror-twelve-reality-bytes-analysis/

– Did Capitalism Fail? (Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg – Project-Syndicate). Until six days before Lehman Brothers collapsed five years ago, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s maintained the firm’s investment-grade rating of “A.” Moody’s waited even longer, downgrading Lehman one business day before it collapsed. How could reputable ratings agencies – and investment banks – misjudge things so badly? (…). http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-2008-crisis-and-the-failure-of-economics-by-roman-frydman-and-michael-d–goldberg

– Five Years of Financial Non-Reform (Anat Admati, Project-Syndicate). Five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the largest global financial crisis since the Great Depression, outsize banking sectors have left economies shattered in Ireland, Iceland, and Cyprus. Banks in Italy, Spain, and elsewhere are not lending enough. China’s credit binge is turning into a bust. In short, the world’s financial system remains dangerous and dysfunctional. (…). http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-failure-of-bank-reform-since-2008-by-anat-admati

– La Turchia alle corde sul problema siriano (Luca Ozzano, Aspenia online).  Nelle scorse settimane, il governo turco si è distinto come il principale sostenitore, insieme a quello francese e quello americano, della necessità di un intervento armato in Siria dopo i presunti attacchi con le armi chimiche del 21 agosto. (…). https://www.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/la-turchia-alle-corde-sul-problema-siriano

– The impact of the (non)strike on Syria: reappraising US strategies (Mattia Toaldo, Aspenia online). Throughout his presidency, Barack Obama has often been defined as a hesitant and reluctant leader. The Syrian crisis proved no exception but, here at least, his doubts can be explained by examining the daunting challenges he had before him. (…). https://www.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/impact-nonstrike-syria-reappraising-us-strategies

– The Rise of Chinese Space Junk (Wilson VornDick, The Diplomat). Most orbital debris is U.S. or Russian in origin. But China’s space program exacerbates an urgent issue. (…). http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/16/the-rise-of-chinese-space-junk/
ASIA
– Pakistan: Who Will Be The Next Army Chief? (Rana Banerji, Eurasia review). With the Presidential succession smoothly out of the way, the stage seems set for the most eventful decision Nawaz Sharif may have to make during the rest of his tenure, that of selecting Pakistan’s next Army Chief. (…). http://www.eurasiareview.com/16092013-pakistan-will-next-army-chief-analysis/
– India: Maoists’ Urban Movement (P. V. Ramana, Eurasia review). The apprehension of a few people over the past few days in Maharashtra, which led to searches by the police at the residence of G N Saibaba, an English teacher, in New Delhi on September 12, 2013, has, once again, brought into focus the urban presence and activities of the Maoists. The police recovered a few hard disks and pen drives from the academic’s house. Saibaba is a prominent leader of the Revolutionary Democratic Front (RDF), a proscribed front organization of the CPI (Maoist). (…). http://www.eurasiareview.com/16092013-india-maoists-urban-movement-analysis/
EUROPE

– Balcani ai margini dei pensieri europei (Andrea Cellino, AffarInternazionali) . Nella lista degli obiettivi dell’Unione europea c’è la stabilizzazione dei Balcani tramite il processo di integrazione. Dopo l’ingresso, il primo luglio, della Croazia nel club di Bruxelles, si può valutare l’efficacia della strategia europea. (…).  http://www.affarinternazionali.it/articolo.asp?ID=2409

MIDDLE EAST

– The Remaking of the Middle East (Shlomo Avineri, Project-Syndicate). The Middle East’s descent into extreme violence – with mass killings of Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators in Cairo followed closely by Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria’s civil war – has dashed the hopes raised by the Arab Spring in 2011. The question now – and in terms of the future – is how to account for what is shaping up to be a profound historical failure. (…). http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-collapse-of-the-arab-state-system-by-shlomo-avineri

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